Sunday, February 28, 2010

ElBaradei on a collision course with Mubarak

Mohammad ElBaradei is set on a collision course with Egypt's president for the last 30 years Hosni Mubarak.

Since his return to Egypt a week ago, he has made it very clear that he is wants regime change, reform and democracy.

It would be mad to think that Mubarak will say, "OK. Let's reform and have fair and free elections."

ElBaradei is gaining more popular support by the minute and the Egyptian government must be taking this threat seriously.

They have apparently already instructed Imams in Friday sermons to subtly attack ElBaradei and have got some of their cronies to bark vague threats at him.

ElBaradei has warned of violent clashes between the government and pro democracy protesters. This is exactly what is going to happen if his support base grows.

It will be like Mugabe vs Tsvangirai in Zimbabwe, but our political mix is a lot more explosive with Islamists and Copts and a very strong military establishment.

So ElBaradei will either hit a brick wall and give up, paving the way for Gamal Mubarak to take over, or he will demonstrate stamina, resolve and balls and then it will get very messy.

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